…excel still more

I have this very unorthodox way of making political predictions. I don’t exactly look at what the rest of the pundits – professionals, and bloggers alike – do. Sometimes outcomes are quite obvious. This past Canadian Federal election was one of them (the only question was whether it was going to be a Conservative Minority or Majority, to which I went along with the popular prediction of a minority). Other times, it had been obvious until some unimaginable turning point in which an underdog came up the victor. The Liberal leadership race of 2006 was an example of this, when Stephane Dion beat out two heavy favorites, Michael Ignatieff and Bob Rae. And yet other times, it’s just a toss up either or (though it’s never really a toss up and eventually one side emerges as the favourite). The Democratic primaries are an example of this.

Anyway. As I said before I sometimes base my decisions on factors that are unusual. And sometimes
this has lead me to make a prediction against the popular prediction. A major example of this is the Liberal leadership race when basically up until the night before everyone was making their choices for either Ignatieff or Rae (even my favourite political pundits like Chantel Hebert and Andrew Coyne predicted one of these two). I on the other hand could not foresee either of them winning. Ignatieff parachuted out of nowhere, while Bob Rae decimated the Ontario Liberals in the 1990’s as leader of the NDP. So I went against the popular predictions and said that it was a toss up between Gerard Kennedy and Stephane Dion, with Stephane Dion being my final prediction. Why? Because of this obscure tradition that Liberal leaders alternate between French Canadian, and English Canadians. And it was the French Canadian’s turn. Guess what. I turned out to be right: http://excelstillmore.ca/2006/12/03/i-was-right/

Anyway. I made another one of these bold predictions during the Democratic primaries. In February, I predicted that Obama would win (I’m sure at this time it was still a toss up.. it wasn’t until like March or April when Obama started becoming the clear favourite)… http://excelstillmore.ca/2008/02/24/clinton-vs-obama/ My reasoning was based on the “historic-ness” of the race. Either a Woman, or a Black Man was going to be a major party’s presidential candidate. I picked Obama because historically, Blacks received political rights before women. Most specifically blacks were emancipated (one major aspect of which is the right to vote) around the 1860s while women did not get this right until a hundred years later in the 1960’s. Weird huh? But I was right. Obama won the presidency.

Anyway. given my record for bold predictions. I figure I really should quit while I’m ahead. After all I’m not a political science major anymore. But alas I cannot resist. And as you can see from the title of this post, I predict a McCain victory.

Why?

One thing people focus on is historicness… This is historic no matter what – either a black man becomes president, or a woman becomes vice president. And based on my other prediction, then I should predict Obama right? Wrong. Frankly I don’t understand why Sarah Palin has received so much attention, except for the fact that she’s a woman, and that she’s kind of hot. Other than that, the Vice Presidency is basically a useless office. John Adams, the very first Vice President of the United States wrote: “My country has in its wisdom contrived for me the most insignificant office that ever the invention of man contrived or his imagination conceived.” And yes of course the vice president is only 1 office removed from the presidency. But when was the last time that happened? Gerald Ford was the last Vice President to succeed to the Presidency, and that was more than 30 years ago.

Anyway. Based on this, let me just make it clear that I believe this race to be very much between Obama and McCain. And the only history that will be made is if Obama wins.

Having said that. In my opinion, McCain will win because of 2 things. 1. Race is still not a settled issue in the United States. Sad I know. But fact. The thing with that is that because racism is illegal and politically incorrect, it brews just under the surface, and really nagates much of the polls that happen now. One of the popular opinions about the polls is that most white people who say they’re going to vote for Obama will actually vote for McCain. And that most of the undecided voters will vote for McCain.

Second reason is experience vs. rhetoric. I think that during uncertain times (not so much economics, but every thing … the entire future of the US is uncertain because so many major issues are coming up), the people are more likely to vote for experience rather than rhetoric. While Obama makes you feel good, McCain makes you feel safe. This was true too during the Democratic primaries when support flip flopped between Clinton who has extensive experience, and Obama.

Finally, people who think that McCain is going to loose because of his connection with Bush are wrong. I think that (1) as much as the world hates Bush, they don’t realize that he maintains huge support in the US. But most importantly, (2) those people who don’t support Bush can tell the difference between him and McCain despite them coming from the same party.

Phew. Anyway. There are just 2 factors that will affect this. The Black vote, and the Youth vote. If these two groups of people actually vote, my prediction will be wrong. I think most Blacks will vote. Unfortunately, Obama needs both sets to win, and I’m am incredibly skeptical that youth will actually go out and vote. The numbers for the advance polls are indication of this – turnout was already low.

Alright so my prediction is made. Tonight we shall find out if I am right like before or if I should have quit while I’m ahead. For what it’s worth, I’m not a hundred percent sure on this prediction. I have this gut feeling that I’m wrong. But my reasoning, wholly un-political scientific as it is, has served me well before. John McCain will be elected as the next President of the United States.

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